predict

It’s prediction season! 2015 predictions coming soon, but first I’ll revisit my 2014 predictions and see how I did.

Here are my 2014 predictions and my self-assigned grade for each.

1 – A Big Year for Female Leaders

I predicted that a female would be named CEO of a large company and generally women would rise in politics. I don’t think this has panned out. Satya Nadella was named chief of Microsoft, Angela Ahrendts has laid low at Apple. It’s still early for Hillary to take charge. There’s been a lot of talk about diversity in tech but that conversation includes much more than gender diversity.

Grade: B

2 – The ObamaCare Quagmire

I predicted that HealthCare.gov would get worse before it got better. This hasn’t been that case from what I’ve seen. Things are actually looking pretty good. New issues emerge and old ones are forgotten. All part of the modern day warpspeed media cycle.

Grade: C

3 – Niche Publishing Platforms Gain Ground

We’ve seen the rise of Medium, Vox, Buzzfeed, and the like. I think I did alright on this one. Vox and Buzzfeed both raised big capital rounds at impressive valuations. Startups with strong tech DNA continue to build superior publishing platform. We’ve seen a few big names move from (and then leave) big media brands to scrappier upstarts.

Grade: A-

4 – Big Year for Liberty and Privacy Advocates

This has been a big year for both people and companies realizing the importance of cybersecurity.The Sony hacking is just the latest. But we haven’t seen a strong movement advocating more privacy and less government snooping. The NSA revelations seem to have been lost as the news cycle spins. What will it take for people to insist on taking full ownership of their own data?

Grade: B-

5 – A Retreat from Mundane Sharing

I thought people would share less in 2014. Meaning posting fewer things to Facebook and other social sharing platforms. I don’t really have any evidence here. We did see the continued rise of apps like Snapchat and Secret, which are focused on ephemeral and anonymous sharing. But my sense is that the vast majority of people stick to Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and the “broadcast” social networks. I guess we all want our 15 minutes of fame.

Grade: B-

Overall Grade: B-

Hopefully I can do better in 2015!

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